This morning, the major contract of the Ocean Line Container Index Futures (hereinafter referred to as the Ocean Line Container) plummeted by 8.77%, reporting at 2140.9 points, and at one point in the morning it even broke through a 10% drop.
At the same time, the Hong Kong stock market fell across the board, the A50 futures index and the RMB also quickly declined, and the A-shares market was still relatively strong in the morning, but the market pattern has also undergone some changes.
So, what are the adverse factors that have suddenly struck?
On the morning of September 2nd, the latest data showed that the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August rose to 50.4%, with the previous value being 49.8%.
Detailed data shows that the manufacturing prosperity has returned to expansion, but external demand has contracted for the first time this year.
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In fact, the economic data of Europe and the United States in July was unexpectedly weak across the board, and the momentum of global inventory replenishment continued to wane.
The Eurozone's composite PMI in July was 50.1%, lower than the market's expectations.
In July, the U.S. manufacturing PMI was 49.6%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous period, below the 50% threshold, and entered the contraction zone.
This may be the main reason for the decline in the Ocean Line Container Index.
The morning saw a sudden plunge of more than 10%, with the market experiencing another sudden event.
The decline of the Ocean Line Container main contract expanded to 8.77%, with the decline at one point breaking through 10%.
This variety reached its highest point of 4763.6 points on July 4th.
Then it went all the way down, and so far, in less than two months, the decline has exceeded 50%.
It is worth mentioning that the stock markets of Europe, the United States, and Japan have also almost reached their peak and fallen back at the same time, and the trend of the Ocean Line Container has a certain degree of fit with it.
This may be related to the external economic fundamentals.
Today, along with the Ocean Line Container, the stock market also fell.
After experiencing the rebound of the last two trading days of last week, the stock market fell again today, and the decline of A-shares in the morning gradually increased, and the market pattern also tended to favor large-cap stocks again.
Stocks like Agricultural Bank of China and Sinopec rebounded significantly, and this style change intensified the selling pressure on small and medium-sized stocks.
It is worth noting that although the overseas market performed well last Friday night, the performance of the Hong Kong stock market in the morning today was not good.
The morning decline of the Hang Seng Index, the China Enterprises Index, and the Hang Seng Technology Index all exceeded 1.5% at one point.
The decline of the A50 futures index expanded to more than 1%.
The offshore RMB against the US dollar also experienced a 100-point decline.
What is the reason?
So, what is the reason for the market's sharp decline?
Looking at the recent data, overseas demand is indeed weakening.
On the morning of September 2nd, according to the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI report, in August 2024, driven by increased demand and a slight acceleration in production, the prosperity of China's manufacturing industry slightly rose and returned to the expansion interval.
The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August, announced on September 2nd, recorded 50.4%, 0.6 percentage points higher than in July, but still the second lowest since November 2023.
However, the export orders of the month were weak and slightly contracted for the first time this year, with companies reflecting a deterioration in the external environment.
In addition, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of South Korea, the fourth-largest economy in Asia, compiled by S&P Global, adjusted for seasonality, was 51.9% in August, higher than the 51.4% in July.
The increase in new export orders was the narrowest in six months.
The official trade data released last Sunday supported the survey results, pointing out that South Korea's exports increased for the 11th consecutive month in August, but the growth rate weakened due to a slowdown in demand for computer chips.
The stock market performance of export-oriented economies in the morning today also did not show strength.
In fact, the economic data of Europe and the United States in July was already weaker than expected, and the momentum of global inventory replenishment continued to wane.
The Eurozone's composite PMI in July was 50.1%, lower than the previous period and the market's expectations.
The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI recorded 45.8%, unchanged from the previous month, and has not yet broken through the threshold line this year.
The service industry PMI recorded 51.9%, although higher than the 50% threshold, but this index has been declining for three consecutive months.
In July, the U.S. manufacturing PMI was 49.6%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous period, below the 50% threshold, and entered the contraction zone.
Looking at the sub-indices, the manufacturing imports, employment, new orders, and new export orders indices were all below 50%, among which the employment and new orders indices declined more significantly, the import index increased compared to the previous month, but only increased by 0.1 percentage points.
Jianxin Futures believes that, combined with the latest inventory data in the United States, the total inventory in the United States in May was 1.76% year-on-year, the previous value was 1.16%.
The manufacturing inventory, business inventory, wholesaler inventory, and retailer inventory in the United States in May increased by 0.87%, 1.61%, -0.51%, and 4.97% year-on-year, respectively.
They believe that the momentum of inventory replenishment in Europe and the United States is weakening, and demand is relatively weak.
In June this year, the European Central Bank lowered the three key interest rates in the Eurozone by 25 basis points, but the European economy has not yet completely alleviated the pressure on production and consumption brought by the previous high interest rates, and the momentum of economic recovery is continuously weakening.
This data shows that the European economy continues to be sluggish, and the manufacturing industry is under considerable pressure when facing factors such as supply chain issues, energy price fluctuations, and economic uncertainty.
In the second half of the year, affected by the trade protection policies of European countries, Sino-European trade will face challenges, so the impact on the export container transportation market needs to be closely monitored.