On Wednesday (September 11th), in the early European market session, the US dollar index maintained its intraday downtrend, currently hovering around 101.40; the spot gold price has already broken through $2,526 per ounce, climbing more than $10 intraday.
The dollar/yen is currently around 141.25, falling more than 110 points intraday.
On this trading day, investors are set to receive the US CPI report, which is expected to trigger another major market movement.
The well-known financial information website, Economies.com, published a latest article on Wednesday, providing a forward-looking analysis of the latest trends in the euro/dollar, pound/dollar, dollar/yen, and gold.
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After Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board member Junko Nakagawa stated that financial conditions would remain loose even if the BOJ raised interest rates, the yen soared to its highest point against the dollar since January 2nd.
Nakagawa also stated that the BOJ needs to pay attention to the upward risks in prices, with real interest rates at a very low level.
Although most BOJ observers expect the BOJ to keep interest rates unchanged at next week's meeting, Nakagawa's remarks remind people that if the economy and prices continue to meet expectations, the BOJ may still raise interest rates.
At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August will be released.
This will be the "last piece of the puzzle" before the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting, and whether the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points or not may depend on this.
Federal Reserve policymakers have made it clear that it is an appropriate time to cut rates.
However, the biggest debate on Wall Street at the moment is whether the Fed will lower the benchmark interest rate from the current target range of 5.25%-5.50% by 25 basis points or by a significant 50 basis points.
An authoritative media survey shows that the year-on-year increase in the US CPI in August is expected to fall from 2.9% to 2.6%, while the core CPI year-on-year increase is expected to remain at 3.2%.
In addition, the US August CPI and core CPI are expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, the same increase as the previous value.
FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer pointed out that if the core CPI rises by 0.4% month-on-month or more, US Treasury yields may rebound, causing gold to lose its foothold.
On the other hand, if the data equals or falls below market expectations, it may make it difficult for the dollar to attract investors, thereby helping gold to rise.
Zaner Metals Vice President and Senior Metal Strategist Peter A.
Grant expects gold prices to reach a historical high.
The gold price hit a historical high of $2,531.60 per ounce on August 20th.
Kinesis Money market analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa said, "If inflation data is far below expectations and sparks hopes of a 50 basis point rate cut, then gold prices may reach a historical high."
Seeking Alpha analyst Damir Tokic said, "Unless the core CPI is far above expectations, the Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points in September.
If the core CPI rises by 0.1% less than expected, it may increase the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut."
Here is Economies.com's technical trend analysis for major currency pairs and gold: Euro/USD: The euro/USD started today's trading with an upward trend, testing the 1.1040 level, with the stochastic indicator sending a positive signal.
As long as the euro/USD remains below the aforementioned level, it is still expected that the exchange rate will be in a bearish trend for some time in the future, waiting for the exchange rate to test the main target of 1.0990 and 1.0940.
On the other hand, we would like to point out that once the euro/USD breaks through 1.1040 and stays above that level, it will stop the corrective bearish scenario and lead the exchange rate to attempt to return to a bullish trend.
In this case, the euro/USD is expected to test the first bullish target of 1.1100, and then the 1.1200 area.
It is expected that today's euro/USD trading will be between the support level of 1.0955 and the resistance level of 1.1100.
Today's expected trend for the euro/USD is bearish.
Pound/USD: The pound/USD continues to fluctuate near the neckline of the double top pattern that was previously lost, waiting for the exchange rate to resume the corrective bearish trend and break through 1.3036, thereby opening the way for the exchange rate to fall to the next main target of 1.2965.
Therefore, we will continue to predict that the pound/USD will be in a bearish trend for some time in the future.
The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) forms bearish pressure.
It should be reminded that if the pound/USD breaks through 1.3124, it will stop the expected decline and lead the exchange rate to attempt to return to the main bullish trend.
It is expected that today's pound/USD trading will be between the support level of 1.3000 and the resistance level of 1.3150.
Today's expected trend for the pound/USD is bearish.
Dollar/Yen: The dollar/yen fell back after testing 143.40 in the previous few trading sessions, which supports the exchange rate to continue the expected bearish trend in the day and short term, and opens the way for the exchange rate to fall to the next main target of 140.24.
The 50-period EMA forms bearish pressure, which supports the dollar/yen to continue the expected bearish trend.
As long as it remains below 143.40, the bearish expectation will still be valid.
It is expected that today's dollar/yen trading will be between the support level of 140.80 and the resistance level of 142.40.
Today's expected trend for the dollar/yen is bearish.
Gold: Gold prices showed a clear upward trend yesterday, and the current gold price has reached the $2,520.00 per ounce area.
Gold needs positive momentum to help push the gold price to rise further in the next few trading sessions.
Currently waiting for the gold price to test the first bullish target of $2,540.00 per ounce, if this level is broken through, it will drive the gold price to test $2,600.00 per ounce in the short term.
Therefore, we will continue to predict that the gold price will be in a bullish trend for some time in the future.
It should be pointed out that if the gold price falls below $2,500.00 per ounce, it will put the gold price under bearish pressure and test the key support of $2,483.40 per ounce, and then try to rebound.
It is expected that today's gold price trading will be between the support level of $2,500.00 per ounce and the resistance level of $2,540.00 per ounce.